Scenario planning is a technique
for gaining a clear understanding of forces driving change. This understanding
is expressed in a set of scenario scripts, which give compelling narratives of
how the future may unfold. The process uncovers early warnings of business
risks and opportunities, challenges any assumptions of business-as-usual and
develops a common language for strategic debate which helps to capture
divergent views across the business.
Scenario planning is a continuous process that constantly captures the
understanding of the evolving market by tracking the critical factors that
govern change. Scenarios are used to review and adjust business plans for a
creative and adaptive response. The plans become a series of options which are
explored, developed and exercised through scenarios to manage the balance of
business risks and rewards.
Selected bibliography:
1)
The
Strategy Concept and Process, Arnoldo C. Hax, Nicolas S. Majluf,
Prentice Hall, Second Edition, 1996
3)
The
Art of Long View - Peter Schwartz, New York: Doubleday Currency, 1991
4)
How
to Build Scenarios - Lawrence Wilkinson, Wired Ventures Ltd, 1996
5)
Future
Scape Project - Siemens Nixdorf