Services
    Scenario Planning

 

"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future."  -- Ian E. Wilson (Chairman, General Electric)

We offer:

1) Scenario Planning Workshops (participants will get a working knowledge of the Scenario Planning Process and will be ready to work as contributors on Scenario Development activities for their businesses)

2) Scenario Planning Consulting (development of alternative scenarios for the future, identification of drivers and early indicators for each scenario, monitoring and adjustment scenarios as needed)

We work closely with our clients in one integrated team to encourage skills transfer.   We encourage the client team to take ownership of the process and the results.
 

Scenario planning is a technique for gaining a clear understanding of forces driving change.  This understanding is expressed in a set of scenario scripts, which give compelling narratives of how the future may unfold.  The process uncovers early warnings of business risks and opportunities, challenges any assumptions of business-as-usual and develops a common language for strategic debate which helps to capture divergent views across the business.

Scenario planning is a continuous process that constantly captures the understanding of the evolving market by tracking the critical factors that govern change.  Scenarios are used to review and adjust business plans for a creative and adaptive response.  The plans become a series of options which are explored, developed and exercised through scenarios to manage the balance of business risks and rewards.

Selected bibliography:  
1)     
The Strategy Concept and Process, Arnoldo C. Hax, Nicolas S. Majluf, Prentice Hall, Second Edition, 1996  
2)      Vision 2010 Project - Carnegie Foundation, 1995-1997
 
3)      The Art of Long View - Peter Schwartz, New York: Doubleday Currency, 1991
 
4)      How to Build Scenarios - Lawrence Wilkinson, Wired Ventures Ltd, 1996
 
5)      Future Scape Project - Siemens Nixdorf

Scenario Planning Links